Türkiye aims to achieve $100 billion in bilateral trade volume with the United States, and Trump’s future policies and reciprocal visits are expected to align relations with this goal.
During President Donald Trump’s second term, Türkiye and the United States are likely to prioritise cooperation in the trade, energy, and Défense industries, as well as investment.
During Trump’s first term, bilateral trade totalled $21.6 billion on average every year.
The figure rose to $21.7 billion in 2020, $27.8 billion in 2021, and $32.1 billion in 2022, before falling to $30.7 billion in 2023.
Last year, bilateral trade surged by about 50% over 2020, reaching a record $32.5 billion, owing mostly to trade trips between the United States and Türkiye. Turkish exports of equipment, mechanical devices, boilers, and jewellery were particularly noteworthy.
Türkiye intends to achieve $100 billion in bilateral trade volume with the United States, and Trump’s future policies and reciprocal visits are expected to align relations with this goal.
Mutual investments will also play a key role in the Türkiye-US economic agenda in Trump’s second term.
Opportunities in transportation and communication are expected to grow as well.
Türkiye’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list and a decline in its credit default swap ratings are expected to boost the confidence of US investors.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs and their potential effects on Türkiye will remain an important focus in bilateral relations.
Shortly after his re-election, Trump announced that his team is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Feb. 1.
Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat said in December that the ministry expects a reduction in customs duties for the textile sector and the removal of restrictions on steel exports.
Trump has also said he would declare a “national energy emergency.” The potential effects of this decision on energy cooperation between the two countries will be closely watched.
Türkiye and the US are expected to step up efforts to increase bilateral cooperation in energy and mining. The US-Türkiye Energy and Climate Dialogue, launched last year, aims to enhance cooperation in energy transformation and climate change.
However, Trump has also announced plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement.
American companies in space and technology sectors are expected to collaborate on new projects and sign investment deals with Türkiye in the coming years.
Türkiye made its first crewed space journeys from the US last year and launched its first indigenous communications satellite, Turksat 6A, into space from the US. Cooperation in space exploration between the two countries is expected to deepen.
The two countries also have the opportunity to expand their Défense industrial collaboration. The United States is expected to revisit its decision on Türkiye under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
On the tourism sector, significant advancements in bilateral relations are projected to bring a record number of US visitors to Türkiye.
In 2021, around 360,000 US visitors visited Türkiye, which increased to more than 1 million in 2022 and 1.3 million in 2023. According to the latest figures, approximately 1.4 million US visitors visited Türkiye in the first 11 months of 2024.
